Skip to main content
SunnyDays

ERA5 almanac — 8 years of real data

Sarasota in October

Sarasota in October is historically a poor month for sun: only 39% of days clear across 8 years (n=248, avg high 83°F). Historical average, not a forecast.

What you are reading: 8-year historical averages from the ERA5 reanalysis, not a forecast. A month that is historically 90% clear can still be overcast on your specific trip. For this week’s actual forecast, see the live Sarasota page. Both can be true at once: “historically strong in this month; this particular week is not.” We label which is which.

Early vs. Late October

Clear-sky percentage for Sarasota in October, split by half-month. “n” is the number of days sampled across 8 years (2018–2025).
Period % Clear days Sample (n) Avg high
Early October
1st–15th		 30% n=120 83°F
Late October
16th–end		 48% n=128 83°F
Full month average 39% n=248 83°F

Sunshine & warmth in October

A second measure using actual sunshine hours (ERA5 sunshine_duration), not the daily weather code. A Lowcountry day with 12 hours of sun and a 25-minute afternoon storm is counted below as a warm, sunny day — because it was. How we define this.

Sunshine-based metrics for Sarasota in October. Primary: % of days ≥ 72°F with > 6 h of sunshine.
Period Warm & sunny (≥72°F, >6 h sun) Sample (n)
Early October
1st–15th		 91% n=120
Late October
16th–end		 94% n=128
Full month average 93% n=248
10.9 h median sunshine per day 90% of days exceed 8 h sunshine 36% of days see ≥ 1 mm rain — rain is not hidden
Comparison (old vs new): WMO-code “clear” bar: 39%. Sunshine-based “warm & sunny”: 93%. The 54-point gap is from brief afternoon convective storms that stamp the whole day as “rain” in the WMO code but leave the bulk of the sunshine untouched.

Bottom line

Sarasota is mostly overcast in October historically: only 39% of days are clear across 8 years (n=248), avg high 83°F. Most visitors this month will see more clouds than sun.

Every month in Sarasota

Compare across all months with data. Numbers are historical clear-sky %.

Historical clear-sky % for Sarasota, all months, ERA5 2018–2025.
Month % Clear Sample (n)
January 17% n=248 All destinations →
February 38% n=226 All destinations →
March 49% n=248 All destinations →
April 50% n=240 All destinations →
May 40% n=248 All destinations →
June 8% n=240 All destinations →
July 5% n=248 All destinations →
August 5% n=248 All destinations →
September 11% n=240 All destinations →
October ← this page 39% n=248 All destinations →
November 42% n=240 All destinations →
December 31% n=248 All destinations →

All percentages are historical averages from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo, 8 full years (2018–2025). “Clear” means avg high ≥ 72 °F, precipitation < 1 mm, and a non-precipitation weather code. This is history, not a forecast. The live 7-day outlook for any destination is on its own page and may differ from the long-run average. Data from Open-Meteo.