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Texas · MAF

Marfa weather this week

Marfa, Texas Just your ID

Marfa scores 7.2 out of 10 and has exactly one genuinely clear day in the next 16. Dull days (4) still outnumber bright ones (1), so this is not a good week.

7.2/10
Mostly dull
1 genuinely clear day, 0 partly cloudy, 3 overcast, 1 wet, 0 stormy — out of 16 forecast days.
Bright days 1 vs dull days 4. Dull wins, so we do not call this a good week.
We are not showing a flattering tier word here. Why the score and the sky can disagree.

The model gives this week 7.2 out of 10 because it is warm and largely rain-free, and those are the two things the score measures. It is not measuring sunshine. With 1 genuinely clear day and 4 dull ones, expect grey skies. We are showing you the number and the contradiction rather than only the number.

5-day window, 1.7% rain-affected — The clouds are winning — 1 clear day out of 5, 1 wet day, 84°F

The next 16 days in Marfa

Every number below is the forecast we hold, rendered as text — nothing here is drawn on a canvas or filled in by JavaScript. The rain figure is the highest chance across all 16 days (31%), not the lowest, because the worst number is the useful one.

Booking window Thu 8 Oct–Mon 12 Oct: 7.2/10 for those days alone. The 16-day outlook score (7.2) covers the full table below and includes days outside that window.

Marfa daily forecast, Thu 8 Oct to Fri 23 Oct (16 days total). Best single day scores 10.0; worst scores 3.8. A lone good day cannot carry the week.
Day High Low Rain chance Sky Day score
80°F 56°F 19% Heavy rain wet 3.8
Heavy rain, 80°F — it'll pass.
80°F 55°F 3% Overcast cloudy 8.5
Overcast, 80°F, dry as a bone.
79°F 60°F 0% Overcast cloudy 8.5
Overcast, 79°F, dry as a bone.
82°F 61°F 0% Clear clear 10.0
Clear skies, 82°F, zero drama.
84°F 64°F 12% Overcast cloudy 8.4
Overcast, 84°F, dry as a bone.
84°F 65°F 31% Partly cloudy partly 8.6
Partly cloudy, 84°F, with a sprinkle or two.
83°F 63°F 29% Overcast cloudy 7.8
Overcast, 83°F, light rain possible.
81°F 61°F 14% Drizzle cloudy 6.2
Overcast, 81°F, dry as a bone.
83°F 54°F 23% Drizzle wet 6.2
Drizzle, 83°F — it'll pass.
59°F 52°F 13% Heavy drizzle cloudy 5.4
Overcast, 59°F, toasty with a lid on.
70°F 59°F 11% Light drizzle cloudy 7.0
Overcast, 70°F, dry as a bone.
72°F 58°F 15% Light drizzle cloudy 7.0
Overcast, 72°F, dry as a bone.
69°F 57°F 13% Light drizzle cloudy 7.0
Overcast, 69°F, dry as a bone.
73°F 58°F 13% Overcast cloudy 8.4
Overcast, 73°F, dry as a bone.
73°F 57°F 23% Overcast cloudy 8.1
Overcast, 73°F, light rain possible.
70°F 55°F 23% Overcast cloudy 7.9
Overcast, 70°F, light rain possible.

How this week got its score

  • 5 forecast days: 1 clear/mainly clear, 0 partly cloudy, 3 overcast, 1 wet (fog/drizzle/rain/showers), 0 stormy.
  • Trimmed mean of day scores 8.5 × 0.55 = 4.66
  • Worst day drag: worst day is 3.8 × 0.25 = 0.95 - one bad day cannot be averaged away.
  • Longest consecutive run of good days (≥7.0) is 4/5 = 80% coverage × 0.20 = 1.60
  • Best single day is 10.0 but it only counts through the trimmed mean - a lone great day cannot carry the window.

The full model, including why a single great day cannot rescue a bad week, is on the methodology page.

Getting to Marfa

The nearest airport we price is MAF. From New York City that is about 3h 50m in the air out of EWR, 1665 miles. Then about 3h 40m to drive from CNM (est. 141 mi — road model, not real routing). Total door-to-lounger: 7h 30m. Flight times from 55 other departure metros are on the search page.

Where to stay in Marfa

1 property we currently hold live rates for, in supplier order. The nightly rate shown is what the supplier returned at the last refresh for the window above — it is a held rate, not a quote, and it moves.

So, should you go?

Marfa scores 7.2 out of 10 and has exactly one genuinely clear day in the next 16. Dull days (4) still outnumber bright ones (1), so this is not a good week. There is some sun in this window, but not much. Compare it against the rest of the list before booking.

Frequently asked

Is it raining in Marfa this week?

Partly. 1 of the next 16 day in Marfa are forecast wet or stormy, peaking at 31% chance on the worst day — the rest are dry, whatever the cloud cover.

How many clear days does Marfa have this week?

One. Marfa has exactly one genuinely clear day in the next 16.

Is Marfa good for a trip this week?

Marginal. Marfa scores 7.2/10, but dull days (4) still outnumber bright ones (1) this week.

Marfa by month — 8-year ERA5 history

Historical clear-sky percentages from the ERA5 reanalysis (2018–2025). This is history, not a forecast — the 7-day forecast above is this week. They can and do differ.

Marfa: clear-sky % by month, ERA5 2018–2025. n = days sampled.
Month Historically clear Sample (n)
January 1% n=248 all destinations →
February 19% n=226 all destinations →
March 48% n=248 all destinations →
April 78% n=240 all destinations →
May 73% n=248 all destinations →
June 70% n=240 all destinations →
July 61% n=248 all destinations →
August 60% n=248 all destinations →
September 64% n=240 all destinations →
October 69% n=248 all destinations →
November 34% n=240 all destinations →
December 11% n=248 all destinations →

Each month links to the detailed almanac page for Marfa in that month. The “all destinations” column links to the full ranking across all destinations for that month.

Forecast data from Open-Meteo, last refreshed 2026-10-08T13:01:07.320349Z. Hotel names and rates come from LiteAPI and change constantly; the rate shown is the rate we held at refresh time, not a quote. Scores are forecasts, not guarantees, and the whole model is published on our methodology page.