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SunnyDays

Florida · JAX

Amelia Island weather this week

Amelia Island, Florida

Amelia Island scores 4.7 out of 10 and has no genuinely clear day in the next 7.

4.7/10
Wet, and no sun
<built-in method clear of dict object at 0x7ce262ac0dc0> genuinely clear days, 0 partly cloudy, 4 overcast, 3 wet, 0 stormy — out of 7 forecast days.
Bright days 0 vs dull days 7. Dull wins, so we do not call this a good week.
We are not showing a flattering tier word here. Why the score and the sky can disagree.

4 cloudy / 3 wet days, no clear days in 7 — Warm, dry, and the sun never shows — zero clear days in 7 and 102°F heat

The next 7 days in Amelia Island

Every number below is the forecast we hold, rendered as text — nothing here is drawn on a canvas or filled in by JavaScript. The rain figure is the highest chance across all 7 days (29%), not the lowest, because the worst number is the useful one.

Booking window Sun 9 Aug–Tue 11 Aug: 5.5/10 for those days alone. The 7-day outlook score (4.7) covers the full table below and includes days outside that window.

Amelia Island daily forecast, Sun 9 Aug to Sat 15 Aug (7 days total). Best single day scores 8.4; worst scores 5.2. A lone good day cannot carry the week.
Day High Low Rain chance Sky Day score
85°F 77°F 14% Overcast cloudy 8.4
Cloudy but warm & dry
85°F 74°F 13% Heavy drizzle cloudy 5.4
Cloudy but warm & dry
101°F 76°F 19% Drizzle wet 5.3
Drizzle - expect to get wet
102°F 78°F 21% Overcast cloudy 5.9
Cloudy with rain risk
102°F 79°F 16% Overcast cloudy 6.1
Cloudy and dry
100°F 79°F 29% Light drizzle wet 5.2
Light drizzle - expect to get wet
100°F 74°F 24% Rain showers wet 5.3
Rain showers - expect to get wet

How this week got its score

  • 7 forecast days: 0 clear/mainly clear, 0 partly cloudy, 4 overcast, 3 wet (fog/drizzle/rain/showers), 0 stormy.
  • Trimmed mean of day scores 5.6 × 0.55 = 3.08
  • Worst day drag: worst day is 5.2 × 0.25 = 1.30 - one bad day cannot be averaged away.
  • Longest consecutive run of good days (≥7.0) is 1/7 = 14% coverage × 0.20 = 0.29
  • Best single day is 8.4 but it only counts through the trimmed mean - a lone great day cannot carry the window.
  • Advertised 3-day window (2026-08-09→2026-08-11) scores 5.5 on its own.
  • Legacy gate counted 4/7 days as "perfect sun"; this model counts 0 genuinely clear.

The full model, including why a single great day cannot rescue a bad week, is on the methodology page.

Getting to Amelia Island

The nearest airport we price is JAX. From New York City that is about 2h 08m in the air out of EWR, 821 miles. Then about 29m to drive from JAX (est. 18 mi — road model, not real routing). Total door-to-lounger: 2h 37m. Flight times from 55 other departure metros are on the search page.

Where to stay in Amelia Island

3 properties we currently hold live rates for, in supplier order. The nightly rate shown is what the supplier returned at the last refresh for the window above — it is a held rate, not a quote, and it moves.

So, should you go?

Amelia Island scores 4.7 out of 10 and has no genuinely clear day in the next 7. There is some sun in this window, but not much. Compare it against the rest of the list before booking.

Amelia Island by month — 8-year ERA5 history

Historical clear-sky percentages from the ERA5 reanalysis (2018–2025). This is history, not a forecast — the 7-day forecast above is this week. They can and do differ.

Amelia Island: clear-sky % by month, ERA5 2018–2025. n = days sampled.
Month Historically clear Sample (n)
January 7% n=248 all destinations →
February 22% n=226 all destinations →
March 25% n=248 all destinations →
April 46% n=240 all destinations →
May 38% n=248 all destinations →
June 18% n=240 all destinations →
July 10% n=248 all destinations →
August 9% n=248 all destinations →
September 22% n=240 all destinations →
October 34% n=248 all destinations →
November 20% n=240 all destinations →
December 12% n=248 all destinations →

Each month links to the detailed almanac page for Amelia Island in that month. The “all destinations” column links to the full ranking across all destinations for that month.

Forecast data from Open-Meteo, last refreshed 2026-08-09T05:01:05.311896Z. Hotel names and rates come from LiteAPI and change constantly; the rate shown is the rate we held at refresh time, not a quote. Scores are forecasts, not guarantees, and the whole model is published on our methodology page.