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Florida · JAX

Amelia Island weather this week

Amelia Island, Florida Just your ID

Amelia Island scores 9.1 out of 10 and has 3 genuinely clear days out of 16. Dull days (3) still outnumber bright ones (3), so this is not a good week.

9.1/10
Mostly dull
3 genuinely clear days, 0 partly cloudy, 3 overcast, 0 wet, 0 stormy — out of 16 forecast days.
Bright days 3 vs dull days 3. Dull wins, so we do not call this a good week.
We are not showing a flattering tier word here. Why the score and the sky can disagree.

6-day window, zero rain — The clouds are winning — 3 clear days out of 6, 89°F

The next 16 days in Amelia Island

Every number below is the forecast we hold, rendered as text — nothing here is drawn on a canvas or filled in by JavaScript. The rain figure is the highest chance across all 16 days (83%), not the lowest, because the worst number is the useful one.

Booking window Mon 12 Oct–Sat 17 Oct: 9.1/10 for those days alone. The 16-day outlook score (9.1) covers the full table below and includes days outside that window.

Amelia Island daily forecast, Thu 8 Oct to Fri 23 Oct (16 days total). Best single day scores 10.0; worst scores 4.0. A lone good day cannot carry the week.
Day High Low Rain chance Sky Day score
81°F 75°F 33% Rain showers wet 5.6
Rain showers, 81°F — it'll pass.
77°F 73°F 83% Heavy drizzle wet 4.5
Heavy drizzle, 77°F — it'll pass.
86°F 75°F 79% Thunderstorm storm 4.0
Thunderstorms, 86°F — Mother Nature has opinions.
89°F 74°F 61% Overcast cloudy 6.2
Overcast, 89°F, light rain possible.
87°F 66°F 9% Overcast cloudy 8.5
Overcast, 87°F, dry as a bone.
87°F 66°F 0% Clear clear 10.0
Clear skies, 87°F, zero drama.
89°F 66°F 5% Clear clear 9.8
Clear skies, 89°F — sunscreen is not optional.
85°F 72°F 6% Clear clear 10.0
Clear skies, 85°F, zero drama.
82°F 75°F 9% Overcast cloudy 8.5
Overcast, 82°F, dry as a bone.
83°F 76°F 16% Overcast cloudy 8.3
Overcast, 83°F, dry as a bone.
77°F 72°F 21% Drizzle wet 6.2
Drizzle, 77°F — it'll pass.
77°F 72°F 31% Light drizzle wet 7.0
Light drizzle, 77°F — it'll pass.
79°F 70°F 32% Drizzle wet 6.2
Drizzle, 79°F — it'll pass.
80°F 70°F 35% Drizzle wet 6.2
Drizzle, 80°F — it'll pass.
83°F 72°F 39% Overcast cloudy 7.4
Overcast, 83°F, light rain possible.
83°F 71°F 32% Light drizzle wet 7.0
Light drizzle, 83°F — it'll pass.

How this week got its score

  • 6 forecast days: 3 clear/mainly clear, 0 partly cloudy, 3 overcast, 0 wet (fog/drizzle/rain/showers), 0 stormy.
  • Trimmed mean of day scores 9.2 × 0.55 = 5.06
  • Worst day drag: worst day is 8.3 × 0.25 = 2.08 - one bad day cannot be averaged away.
  • Longest consecutive run of good days (≥7.0) is 6/6 = 100% coverage × 0.20 = 2.00
  • Best single day is 10.0 but it only counts through the trimmed mean - a lone great day cannot carry the window.

The full model, including why a single great day cannot rescue a bad week, is on the methodology page.

Getting to Amelia Island

The nearest airport we price is JAX. From New York City that is about 2h 08m in the air out of EWR, 821 miles. Then about 29m to drive from JAX (est. 18 mi — road model, not real routing). Total door-to-lounger: 2h 37m. Flight times from 55 other departure metros are on the search page.

Where to stay in Amelia Island

15 properties we currently hold live rates for, in supplier order. The nightly rate shown is what the supplier returned at the last refresh for the window above — it is a held rate, not a quote, and it moves.

So, should you go?

Amelia Island scores 9.1 out of 10 and has 3 genuinely clear days out of 16. Dull days (3) still outnumber bright ones (3), so this is not a good week. There is some sun in this window, but not much. Compare it against the rest of the list before booking.

Frequently asked

Is it raining in Amelia Island this week?

No. The current 16-day forecast for Amelia Island shows no rain or storm days, peaking at 83% chance on the worst day. Cloud is not the dealbreaker here — rain is, and none is forecast.

How many clear days does Amelia Island have this week?

3. Amelia Island has 3 genuinely clear days out of the next 16.

Is Amelia Island good for a trip this week?

Marginal. Amelia Island scores 9.1/10, but dull days (3) still outnumber bright ones (3) this week.

Amelia Island by month — 8-year ERA5 history

Historical clear-sky percentages from the ERA5 reanalysis (2018–2025). This is history, not a forecast — the 7-day forecast above is this week. They can and do differ.

Amelia Island: clear-sky % by month, ERA5 2018–2025. n = days sampled.
Month Historically clear Sample (n)
January 7% n=248 all destinations →
February 22% n=226 all destinations →
March 25% n=248 all destinations →
April 46% n=240 all destinations →
May 38% n=248 all destinations →
June 18% n=240 all destinations →
July 10% n=248 all destinations →
August 9% n=248 all destinations →
September 22% n=240 all destinations →
October 34% n=248 all destinations →
November 20% n=240 all destinations →
December 12% n=248 all destinations →

Each month links to the detailed almanac page for Amelia Island in that month. The “all destinations” column links to the full ranking across all destinations for that month.

Forecast data from Open-Meteo, last refreshed 2026-10-08T13:01:07.320349Z. Hotel names and rates come from LiteAPI and change constantly; the rate shown is the rate we held at refresh time, not a quote. Scores are forecasts, not guarantees, and the whole model is published on our methodology page.